News & Articles : Houston Chronicle
Think tank envisions 2 futures for Houston
By Jeannie Kever
A Houston think tank has seen the city’s future. Make that two futures. One version shows the Houston metropolitan area in 2040 as beginning to grow after decades of economic stagnation, focused on improving the environment, education and quality of life, paid for through higher taxes. The second hypothetical Houston is a hard-charging economic power, doubling in size over the previous 30 years but also split by stark disparities between rich and poor.
The two scenarios from the Center for Houston’s Future are intended to inform the debate over decisions the region faces in coming decades. “We’re not saying one is good or bad,” said James Calaway, the center’s chairman. “We’re giving leadership things to think about.” Both scenarios see Houston as a global player, driven by energy, health care and the port.
“In both, Houston does well,” Calaway said. “We didn’t think there was a case where Houston falls apart by 2040. Nobody thought oil and gas companies were going to be gone by 2040. Nobody believed Houston will become Detroit.”
Education a constant
The center, affiliated with the Greater Houston Partnership, recruited volunteers to comb through the research and develop the scenarios. “We talked about oil, health care, crime,” said Irma Diaz-Gonzales, president and CEO of Employment & Training Centers. “But we always came back to education.”
In the first scenario, “Learning to Live,” the eight-county region has had two decades of slow growth and political instability, buffeted by businesses moving away and declining educational levels. By 2040, the population had reached 7 million - up just 1 million from current estimates - and residents had agreed to higher taxes and other efforts to improve education. The result was a better quality of life, with cleaner air, more green spaces and better public transportation.
The second scenario, “Playing to Win,” describes a region of 12 million people, boosted by a pro-business climate and an economy based on energy, health care, the port and water reclamation and desalination efforts along the coast. Companies recruit from around the world while the home-grown workforce suffers from a lack of education and training. The wealthy live in gated enclaves, the poor in crime-ridden neighborhoods.
“For some the region represents boundless opportunity and a quality of life beyond what they could find elsewhere,” this scenario concludes. “For others … access to opportunity is limited and the future is unclear.”
‘A broader picture’
Officials and faculty leaders at Baylor College of Medicine used the scenarios at a strategic planning retreat in January. “It helps you get out of a narrow window and think of a broader picture,” said Dr. Paul Klotman, Baylor’s president and CEO.
Sister Damien Marie Savino, chairwoman of environmental science at the University of St. Thomas and a member of the volunteer committee, predicts a mix of the two scenarios as most likely. “I ended up feeling quite positive about the potential here,” she said.
And really, Calaway said, that’s the point. He and Catherine Mosbacher, president and CEO of the center, hope to present the findings to civic and community groups over the next year, culminating in a regional summit in January. “We’re not projecting the future,” he said. “But if you get thousands of people and organizations reflecting on these matters, you probably have a better chance of navigating the future.”
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Houston region is now the most diverse in the U.S.
By Jeannie Kever
The Houston metropolitan area is now the most ethnically diverse large metropolitan area in the country, with two suburbs - Pearland and Missouri City - leading the region in diversity.
The findings come from a new report from Rice University based on an analysis of census data from 1990, 2000 and 2010. Report co-author Michael Emerson, a sociologist and co-director of the Kinder Institute for Urban Research at Rice, attributed the growth in diversity to a 1965 shift in immigration laws, which changed the way visas were granted.
Before that change, immigration was dominated by people from Europe. Once the United States began granting equal numbers of visas to every country, immigrants from Latin America, Asia and Africa became dominant.
The report found that Pearland and Missouri City have surpassed Houston as the most diverse in the region. The report produced by the Kinder Institute and the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas also found:
• The city of Houston remained more segregated than other areas of the metropolitan area.
• Segregation among African-Americans and Latinos has declined the most rapidly.
• According to the analysis, the percentage of metropolitan area residents who are Anglo dropped to 40 percent by 2010, down from almost 58 percent in 1990.
• Anglos make up 48.9 percent of the population in New York.
• The percentage of Latinos in the Houston area increased to about 40 percent by 2010, up from 20 percent in 1990. The report says that Latinos will become the region’s largest ethnic group within a few years.
• The percentage of Asians has almost doubled over the past 20 years to 6.5 percent, up from 3.4 percent in 1990.
• The percentage of African-Americans has barely budged - 16.8 percent in 2010, down slightly from 17.5 percent in 1990.
Within the five-county area - Brazoria, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, and Montgomery - Fort Bend County is the most diverse, according to the report. Montgomery County is the least diverse with Anglos accounting for 71 percent of residents.
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www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Houston-region-is-now-the-most-diverse-in-the-U-S-3382354.php
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